No-deal-brexit to lower Czech exports to the UK by 20%

As stressed once again by the new British Prime Minister Boris Johnson during his new online questions and answers session called “the People’s PMQs”, Britain is going to leave the EU on October 31 even if there is no deal agreed with the EU. The most influential confederation of British industry, the CBI, nevertheless continues to urge its government and the EU to bridge the political divide and to secure a good deal, which it regards vital for the UK’s competitiveness.

According to the IMF‘s analysis, no-deal brexit scenario is estimated to cost the UK long-term reduction in GDP of 8% which is the equivalent of 6,000 GBP per household. Customs declarations under a no deal are estimated to cost UK industry 20 billion GBP every year and a decrease in UK exports to EU countries is foreseen at around 45%.

In addition, the CBI estimated that practical consequences of a no deal scenario would extend the time to clear medicines for sale across the UK could increase by up to 3 month. Besides, a delay of just 2 minutes to check and process a lorry at Dover would lead to queues of over 17 miles. In case of a no deal, severe regulatory trading barriers would cause stifled digital growth of the UK’s 240 billion GBP data economy.

The impact of a no deal on the Czech Republic would also be significant; given the fact the UK is our 5th biggest trading partner. Current Czech exports to the UK amount 210 bill CZK. This figure comprises mainly of products of the automotive industry (66 billion CZK) and office machinery (20 billion CZK).

According to analyses from reputable economic organizations, in case of a no deal, Czech exports to the UK could decrease by 20%. The net Czech export to the UK could thus go down by 30 billion CZK, which would result in decrease in Czech GDP by 1.1% and closing down 40,000 job opportunities.

As key Czech economists conclude, if the hard brexit is moderated for instance by some sort of temporary agreements and the reduction of Czech exports to the UK stops at 5 %, the negative impact on Czech economy would then drop by 0.3% and by 10,000 jobs.

According to the Sector-Level Brexit Analysis by the eminent Belgian University of Leuven from June 2019, the job losses in the Czech Republic are estimated even higher at up to 47,310 in case of a hard brexit and 11,140 in case of a soft brexit (see a detailed table by sector).

The Czech Confederation of Industry therefore once again calls upon politicians responsible for administration of brexit, to strike a deal for the benefit of both the UK’s and EU’s people and businesses alike.

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Sources: Facebook (PeoplesPMQs), CBI.org.uk, Euractiv.cz, University of Leuven