Preliminary estimate of the GDP growth

The preliminary estimate of the economic growth in the fourth quarter of 2014 (+1,3% in year-over-year comparison, +0,2% quarterly) and an estimate for the whole year (+2%) corresponds by its structure to the trends and expectations, but it has not reached the value expected.

In appraising this value, we don’t see any reason, nevertheless, to be too much critical in our commentaries, all the more so because it is a flash evaluation. Last but not least, a key role in evaluating the economic growth has been played by the development of the value added rate, which amounted, in the fourth quarter of 2014 to 2,4%, according to a preliminary estimate, and it shows that, apart from the comparative base (4^thquarter of 2013), the influence of the consumption tax‘s amount collected has played an important role in decreasing the final value of the GDP.

The economy in 2014 has been characterized by a higher stabilization rate across all branches, both the domestic and the foreign demand has been growing. The industry has confirmed its strong position as a driving force in the Czech economy (contracts have grown by 12,1% and manufacturing production by 6,4%).

Our predictions as to the Czech GDP growth remain the same. The survey organized by the Confederation of Industry of the Czech Republic and the Czech National Bank, conjuncture surveys, industry contracts and expectations of our foreign partners indicate that the stabilization trend and the economic revival should continue in the next months, but cautious optimism is to be preserved.